An action-packed battle is widely expected when ranked middleweights Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori meet Saturday in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori. The clash of top-five contenders closes the MMA showcase from the Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the main UFC fight card is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET. The second-ranked Costa’s lone professional defeat came at the hands of champion Israel Adesanya in a title fight. The Brazilian brawler looks to get back on track against the fifth-ranked Vettori, who is coming off a loss to Adesanya for the title. Both combatants are noted for their nonstop pressure, making this perhaps the best non-title fight matchup available in the division.
Vettori is a -140 favorite (risk $140 to win $100), while Costa is priced at +120 in the latest UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori odds from Caesars Sportsbook. In the co-main event, Grant Dawson (-325) faces Rick Glenn (+265) in a matchup of lightweight prospects. Before making any picks of your own for UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori, make sure you check out the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Andrew Gombas.
Gombas is a former NCAA wrestler who taps into his experience on the mat to dissect the X’s and O’s of MMA matchups in a manner that sets him apart from other MMA analysts. He started the MMA handicapping service MMA Knockout Bets in 2018 and has shown a profit every year since.
With more than 1,200 selections tracked by the third-party monitoring service Bet MMA, he has shown a 10 percent return on investment for his followers. In 2020, $100 bettors who tailed his picks were up $9,200. Last week at UFC Fight Night, Gombas told SportsLine members to back veteran Andre Arlovski (-110) against rising prospect Carlos Felipe (-110) in the heavyweight co-main event. Arlovski registered a unanimous decision to give his followers another winner. Anyone who has followed Gombas is already way up.
Now, with UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori looming, Gombas has studied the UFC card from top to bottom and released his top MMA picks and predictions. A successful parlay of those picks would pay 7-1. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of Gombas’ UFC picks.
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori preview
Vettori and Costa are known for their brash trash-talking, which could make for entertaining press conferences ahead of their fight. Both engaged in heated verbal warfare with Adesanya ahead of their title fights, only to come out on the short end of the combat in the cage.
Costa (13-1) later said he was sluggish for the title fight because he consumed too much alcohol as a sleep aid the night before the bout. Vettori (17-5-1) dismissed the champ as unimpressive after his loss, aside from the lone concession that Adesanya had a “smart” strategy.
Costa is a rugged power puncher who has seen 12 of his 13 professional MMA victories come by stoppage. He was seen as a serious threat to Adesanya as the opening odds were nearly even, but the confident Brazilian appeared outclassed by the champion from the outset.
Vettori uses a blend of wrestling, striking and constant pressure to wear down his opponents. He has just two career knockouts but has recorded seven victories by submission.
The Italian also likely has the more impressive resume, as he has defeated ranked fighters such as Jack Hermansson (currently No. 6) and Kevin Holland (No. 14). Costa’s win over Uriah Hall (No. 10) is his sole victory over a currently ranked middleweight. You can only see who to back here.
UFC Fight Night picks
We’ll reveal one of Gombas’ UFC Fight Night selections here: He is backing Francisco Trinaldo (-120) to emerge victorious against Dwight Grant (+100) in a battle of rugged welterweights.
Trinaldo (26-8) is a nine-year UFC veteran who has faced some of the division’s biggest names and held his own. The 43-year-old Brazilian has never competed for the title despite once putting together a seven-fight win streak that included a victory over former contender Paul Felder. He has won three of his past four but is looking to rebound from a decision loss against Muslim Salikhov in June.
Grant (11-3) is a skilled striker who has gone 3-2 in five UFC appearances, with the losses coming against prospects Zak Ottow and Daniel Rodriguez, who is now ranked No. 15 in the division. The 37-year-old New Yorker earned a split-decision victory over Stefan Sekulic in April.
“Trinaldo will look to close the distance and mix in takedowns. Grant will look to use his six-inch reach advantage to keep Trinaldo at bay and land big shots from distance. Trinaldo gets the edge in a close fight,” Gombas told SportsLine.
How to make UFC Fight Night selections
Gombas also has strong picks for Costa vs. Vettori and other fights on the UFC Fight Night card. He’s also backing one fighter to “impose his will” on his opponent. Those UFC picks and MMA predictions are only available at SportsLine.
Who wins Costa vs. Vettori? And which picks should you parlay for a payout of 7-1? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the insider who’s up nearly $9,200 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out.
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori odds, fight card:
Paulo Costa (+120) vs. Marvin Vettori (-140)
Grant Dawson (-325) vs. Rick Glenn (+265)
Alex Caceres (+240) vs. Seung Woo Choi (-280)
Dwight Grant (+100) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (-120)
Nicolae Negumereanu (-215) vs. Ike Villanueva (+185)
Jun Yong Park (-115) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-105)
Alan Patrick (+210) vs. Mason Jones (-250)
Tabatha Ricci (-220) vs. Maria de Oliveira Neta (+190)
Jamie Pickett (+205) vs. Laureano Staropoli (-245)
Khama Worthy (+155) vs. Jai Herbert (-175)
Jeff Molina (-165) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+145)
Livia Renata Souza (-130) vs. Randa Markos (+110)
Jessica-Rose Clark (-140) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+120)