2021 Coca-Cola 600 odds: Surprising NASCAR at Charlotte picks, predictions from proven computer model

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to one of its most historical venues on the circuit this week for the 2021 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Since 1960, Charlotte has hosted 122 Cup races, producing 52 different winners, led by Jimmie Johnson with eight. A total of eight former winners are entered in this week’s event, and Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick lead all active drivers with three victories. Truex has the most wins in the Cup series this season with three, and will aim to get halfway to Johnson’s career victory total at Charlotte in the 2021 Coca-Cola 600, scheduled for 6 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Truex already has two intermediate track wins this season, and has finished in the top-three in four of his last six Charlotte starts, so it’s no surprise that he is listed as an 11-2 co-favorite with Kyle Larson in the 2021 Coca-Cola 600 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Dating back to the 2019 season, Truex ranks first in fastest laps run (147) and is second in driver rating (113.9) and laps led (203) at Charlotte. Before scouring the 2021 Coca-Cola 600 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Charlotte predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Coca-Cola 600 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

During the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in six of the last 11 races. Last month, it had Martin Truex Jr. at the top of its projected leaderboard at Martinsville, nailing his victory for a 3-1 payout. Two weeks ago, the model was high on eventual winner Alex Bowman at Dover. Anybody who has followed the McClure’s model on those picks is way up.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Coca-Cola 600 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Charlotte leaderboard.

Top 2021 Coca-Cola 600 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he’s a 10-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Charlotte odds 2021. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Logano is making a strong push to get back into Victory Lane recently, as he comes off a pair of top-five finishes. He has won four times on intermediate tracks dating back to the 2018 season, and he finished second at Phoenix this season.

Logano made a strong bid for a win at Charlotte in 2019, finishing second. He ranks second among all active drivers with an average finish of 12.2 at the site. Penske Racing is looking for its fifth win at Charlotte after Brad Keselowski took the checkered flag in the 2020 Coca-Cola 600. Penkse Racing had two cars finish in the top-three in the first Charlotte race last year, and all of their drivers finished in the top-seven in the second event at the site.

And a massive shocker: Hamlin, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Coca-Cola 600 starting lineup. The 17-year NASCAR Cup Series veteran has 44 wins on the top circuit, including 13 in the last two seasons.

However, he’s never been to victory lane at Charlotte Motor Speedway in 29 career starts there and last season he finished seven laps down in 29th at the 2020 Coca-Cola 600. Hamlin leads the NASCAR Cup Series standings so far in 2021, but he hasn’t recorded a victory yet this year and the price is simply too steep to justify including Hamlin in 2021 Coca-Cola 600 bets. 

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Charlotte picks

The model is also targeting another driver with 2021 NASCAR at Charlotte odds longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Coca-Cola 600 2021? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Charlotte odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Coca-Cola 600 leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in six of the last 11 races and nailed Martin Truex Jr.’s win at Martinsville. 

2021 Coca-Cola 600 odds 

Kyle Larson 11-2
Martin Truex Jr. 11-2
Chase Elliott 6-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Kyle Busch 13-2
Brad Keselowski 15-2
Kevin Harvick 17-2
Ryan Blaney 9-1
Joey Logano 10-1
William Byron 15-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Tyler Reddick 40-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Daniel Suarez 150-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Ryan Newman 150-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Erik Jones 250-1
Bubba Wallace 250-1
Ross Chastain 250-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Chase Briscoe 500-1
Ryan Preece 750-1
David Starr 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Corey Lajoie 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1

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