2021 NASCAR All-Star Race odds: Surprising picks, predictions from proven model for Texas Motor Speedway

The 2021 NASCAR regular season is technically on pause this weekend, but the top stock car drivers in the world will head to Texas Motor Speedway for the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race on Sunday. There are 17 drivers who have already clinched a berth in the winner-take-all $1 million exhibition race, while the other full-time drivers will fight for three available spots in the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Open. The green flag drops on the NASCAR All-Star Open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, while the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

Kyle Larson captured his third win of the season last week at Sonoma, which earned him the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race pole and has helped make him a 5-2 favorite in the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Other notables near the top of the NASCAR at Texas odds board include Chase Elliott (6-1), Martin Truex Jr. (6-1) and Kyle Busch (17-2). Before scouring the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Texas predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in seven of the last 13 races. And in April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model was also high on eventual winner Alex Bowman at Dover in May. Anyone who has followed its lead on those picks has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.

Top 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he’s a 17-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Texas odds 2021. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Logano currently sits at fifth in the 2021 NASCAR standings having collected seven top-five finishes, including a historic win on the dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Now, the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series champion will to the first ever all-star race at Texas Motor Speedway, where he’s experienced plenty of success. Logano has collected 11 top-fives in 24 career cup starts in Fort Worth and won the 2014 Duck Commander 500. The 2016 Sprint All-Star Race winner has only finished worse than eighth once in 10 career all-star starts and he’s a strong play for Sunday at 17-1 with his spot clinched.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race starting lineup. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion crawled back up to third in the NASCAR standings with four consecutive finishes of third or better, including a win at Circuit of the Americas.

However, Elliott has had mixed results on 1.5-mile speedways this season. He finished second at Charlotte and fifth at Kansas, but also finished outside the top 10 at Homestead-Miami and Las Vegas and was a dismal 38th after engine problems at Atlanta. He’s also finished outside the top 10 in four consecutive starts at Texas Motor Speedway.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Texas picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Texas odds longer than 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the NASCAR All-Star Race 2021? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 NASCAR All-Star Race leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in seven of the last 13 races and nailed Martin Truex Jr.’s win at Martinsville. 

2021 NASCAR All-Star Race odds

Kyle Larson 5-2
Chase Elliott 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Busch 17-2
Denny Hamlin 10-1
William Byron 10-1
Alex Bowman 12-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Joey Logano 17-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Austin Dillon 28-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Michael McDowell 300-1

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