2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds: Surprising NASCAR at Sonoma picks, top predictions from proven model

After NASCAR reverted back to qualifying sessions to set the starting lineups for the last two races, the Cup Series is once again using the starting lineup formula for the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Kyle Larson was awarded the pole for this road course, which gives him four straight for NASCAR at Sonoma. Larson also had pole position last week and went on to win at Charlotte, so being on the pole again is a good sign for him when the green flag drops at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday.

No driver has been hotter than Larson, whose win last week came after three straight runner-up finishes. William Hill Sportsbook lists his 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds at 8-1 as he looks to translate that pole success into his first NASCAR at Sonoma victory. The favorite is Chase Elliott at 6-4, followed by Martin Truex Jr. (3-1) and Kyle Busch (15-2). Before scouring the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in six of the last 12 races. And in April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. He was also high on eventual winner Alex Bowman at Dover in May. Anyone who has followed his lead has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.

Top 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 predictions

One surprise: the model likes Kurt Busch, even though he’s an enormous 50-1 long shot in the latest 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. The older Busch brother won at Sonoma in 2011 and then finished runner-up to younger brother, Kyle, in 2015. Kurt also has two other top-three finishes at this track. Across his 19 NASCAR at Sonoma races, Busch has led at some point in nine of them.

Busch drew the No. 30 position in the starting lineup, which is the second-worst of his career at the track. But he also has previous success at nudging his way into a good finishing position when starting outside the top 10. Over his four previous NASCAR at Sonoma races in which he had a double-digit starting position, Busch finished in the top 10 three times. That includes back-to-back top-10s in 2017 and 2018, as well as his 2011 victory which came from the No. 11 spot.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, the Vegas favorite at 6-4, stumbles and doesn’t crack the top three. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup. The 2020 Cup Series Champion ranks fourth in standings this season thanks to a recent surge with five consecutive top-10 finishes.

However, he’s never been to victory lane in the Cup Series at Sonoma Raceway, let alone finished in the top three before. He’s raced it four times before and he has more finishes outside the top 20 (two) than he has inside the top five (one). This year, Elliott’s fourth-place ranking in the Cup Series standings may be an indicator that he’s been more lucky than good as he barely cracks the top 10 in laps led, ranking ninth in that category. 

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 20-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Toyota Save Mart 350 2021? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in six of the last 12 races and nailed Martin Truex Jr.’s win at Martinsville. 

2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds 

Chase Elliott 6-4
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Kyle Busch 15-2
Kyle Larson 8-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Joey Logano 16-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Brad Keselowski 30-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Michael McDowell 75-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
Matt DiBenedetto 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Erik Jones 150-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Ryan Newman 300-1
Aric Almirola 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Ben Rhodes 2500-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1 

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