Democrats’ plan would decrease deficit by more than $100B: CBO

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday released estimates for Democrats’ sprawling reconciliation plan, forecasting the legislation would lead to a net deficit decrease of more than $100 billion over roughly the next decade.

The estimates from the nonpartisan budget scorekeeper come as Democrats are moving quickly to pass the mammoth bill, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, later this week.

The CBO’s estimates projected the tax, healthcare and climate plan would reduce the deficit between 2022-2031 by more than $101 billion.

Democrats had originally estimated the plan would contribute to more than $300 billion in deficit reduction, however, the estimates released by the CBO on Wednesday don’t completely factor in the effects of all the proposed pay-fors.

Among the proposals tucked into the bill announced last week include provisions to impose a 15 percent minimum tax on corporations with profits that exceed $1 billion, close the so-called carried interest loophole, and reforms for prescription drug pricing.

Democrats have estimated, citing figures from the CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation, that those components would raise over $600 billion in revenue.

A proposal to boost funding to the IRS to help bolster enforcement of tax laws would bring in $124 billion in revenue, though some experts have called that figure a lowball estimate.

“CBO expects that the provisions in title I that would increase funding for tax enforcement activities also would increase revenues,” the CBO said. “However, under guidelines agreed to by the legislative and executive branches, that change is not included in this cost estimate, although it would be reflected in CBO’s baseline budget projections after the legislation was enacted.”

However, the CBO noted in its report that, as “a result of those increases in outlays, revenues would increase by $204 billion over the 2022-2031 period,” eventually cutting the deficit by more than $300 billion in total.

Updated 4:16 p.m.